Sunday, March 19, 2017
2017 gold outlook.
After a long break from blogging, i return to pen down my thoughts. I am bullish for 2017 year of US stock market and bullish on Gold, since the following chart suggests that a bottom may have formed on gold futures. We are on the verge of a bullish run on gold, and the target is around 1400 area initially, though higher is most likely before year end 2017. But, i am inclined to make a play on Silver (which correlates with Gold) in order to play the precious metals. With 2017 price target of 21 on silver futures (from today's 17.5) there is a bigger percentage to be gained with a play on silver, when compared to gold.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
2013 US equities outlook ( S&P 500 )
Motivation behind restarting the blog with 2013 spx target
Even though i was following the financial markets in 2012 with keen interest, only a few friends knew my thoughts, during 2012. This year, i decided to use this blog to store some of my thoughts, to have a repository for some of my work. I do not expect the frequency of entries this year to equal 2011 blog entries, but the quality of analysis behind this year's articles would be higher, as i get to spend more time on research and analysis.
During October 2011, i got interested in longer term price targets, upon realizing the capitulation at bottom, and started looking into year end price target for s&p 500. I published this article only after a month, in November 2011, and i quote from that article... "my conclusion is that market will close the year at 1248 or better on the spx futures, as high probability (70%)...." S&P 500 closed 2011 at 1258, 10 pts away from my target, and in the direction expected.
During 2012 January, 2nd week, I was able to share the results of my research on 2012 s&p earnings and price target with with couple of friends, who valued my work and hence gave me back something in return. I updated this midyear, on July 4th, 2012. Based on my analysis during june, i arrived at a fair value of 1421.5 as year end target for s&p 500. In December 2012 first week, I sent another email (due to increased fears about US fiscal cliff), which forecasted a year end fair value at 1428 on spx, with a potential to go higher to 1440 area. s&p 500 finished 2012 at 1426.
Past results are no assurance of future success; nonetheless, this motivated me to enhance my data analysis. So, in December 2012 i built a primitive model to use for forecasts. This modeling will be a life-long project for me, and this year's forecast is the first attempt with this. (Too much adherence to forecasts, without proper risk management leads to disaster.)
A point to note is that this article was created during 2nd week of January, as a personal guideline for myself, but i did not get a chance to write it down as a blog article until now.
Macro factors i considered for 2013:
- market views european sovereign risks as tail factors, since ECB is standing ready for easing.
- New chinese government has taken pro-market policies and eased on banks (RRR etc.).
- Japanese monitary policy is set in the direction of devaluing yen.
- QE infinity in US will last atleast until end of 2013, if not more.
- Retail traders who have been risk averse after 2008 crash, are likely to join the bull market in the final stages of the bullish trend. Money flow into long-only funds on the 1st week of Jan was the highest since 2000, but it was also the fourth-largest weekly inflow on record.
S&P Earnings forecast:
- As of Jan.3rd 2013, Wall street earnings expectations were for
Jan season earnings (Q4,2012) = 25.42 (bottom-up estimate)
Apr season earnings (Q1,2013) = 26.47
For calendar year 2013 ~ 113 (bottom-up) & 108.73 (top-down)
Q4,2012 (yoy) growth rate = 2.6%
CY 2013 growth rate ~ 9.7% - MY FORECASTS
Q4/2012 Earnings 25.63 or lower
Q1/2013 Earnings 24.93 or lower
2013 FY earnings = 103.6
Earnings growth(yoy) for Q4,2012 and/or Q1/2013 has good probability to be negative, which is my bearish baseline case for H1/2013. My bullish case scenario won't come in near wall street expectations which is above 2%
s&p 500 target:
- my comment on Jan 3rd,2013 in an email to my friends :
"It is likely that market will test 1494 before march 1st.
A second possibility is for 1518 area. Also, i see a correction
looming (about 5% or higher) before summer" - based on earnings, a bullish CAPE gives, spx = 1531 for H1/2013. As usual, i will revise this number mid-year, for a earnings based target.
- average based on various angles of technical analysis points me to 1582+ bullish target by end of year or early 2014 and 1680+ in 2014 (ie. still 12% + upside left in US equities over next 2 years)
- Seperately, i ran an analysis on correlation of US equities to QE levels in the past and expected spx target, based on this model. If we go by the cliche of "Don't fight the fed", past QE moves indicate that 2013 is likely to see a 24% move up. So, QE infinity from 1266 bottom in june,2012 => 1569 (or more, as the retail crowd joins the party, this time around).
- Average of my current methods gives forecast as
1569 + 1531 + 1582 + 1481 (my base case earnings model estimate) / 4 = 1540 as initial year end target for 2013, with a rough probability estimate of 80% associated with this number.
Conclusion:
- Currently spx has reached my initial target set at start of this year, and is working towards resistance area of 1531-1544, which should define first half of this year. Thus, i view the area above 1500 as a chance to build protective positions on your long term portfolio (or) build short position into the upcoming correction (or for summer doldrums, on a quarterly basis).
- Further buy points, when viewed with a wide-angle lens, would be my 2012 fair market value 1428-1440 area and 1375 area (fair value at start of 2012), with first target set at 2014 valuation near 1700 spx.
- I expect the second half of 2013 to be more bullish than 1st half, reaching the yearly highs. The mid-year update and forecast will create proper positioning into second half.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
2012 / 2013 views have changed.
If you have been getting my weekly updates in 2012, you know some of my macro views have changed (eg. gold outlook for 2012, published in 2011). You will also know that my 2011 call of No QE3 in first 3 quarters of 2012 is one of the biggest macro predictions that i made in 2011. I am providing this update, since some of my friends expressed interest, recently, in looking at my past record.
Wishing you the best in your trading - sam.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Goodbye 2011
We are starting 2012 on a postive note, and i have spent a good chunk of my holidays into further research on the potential of 2012. I covered numerous topics including fundamental valuation of s&p 500, institutional expectations, potential risk factors including bank and soverign debt levels, etc. I hope to put all this together as an article for next weekend. Meanwhile, here is a chart covering my forecasts during 2011. We can be happy, when we consider that big hedge fund managers like John Paulson lost over 50% of their portfolio. spx itself has gone nowhere during 2011, but the high volatility is a godsend for traders, and offered tremendous returns for the smart trader.
I wish all my readers a successful trading year ahead, in 2012.
I wish all my readers a successful trading year ahead, in 2012.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
How will markets celebrate christmas of 2011 ?
Market Commentary:
I have been updating my thoughts frequently, in the 'comment' section, but this week has enough importance to start a new article. Unlike the usual christmas time quietness, we may see more action this christmas week, because the week's calendar is packed, as follows:
Most news articles i saw described how this is a liquidity operation to supply free money to the struggling european banks. I view these LTRO operation, both as a liquidity as well as a monetizing operation, simultaneously. I have not seen any analyst or blogger address it in the way i view it. Ingenious move, if you really ponder about it. I suspect there would have been some closed door discussions between ECB, European banks and leaders during the past month, on how this free money can be used by the banks. There has been a rumor for past 3 weeks that one of the big banks of europe is near collapse. So, its clear that the banks need the money for their own survival; but also, the governments need the money to fund their bond operations and functioning of the governments. So, it is quite likely that the individual governments will pressure the local banks in their country, to use ECB given money to purchase their soverign bonds. And hence, my theory is that, this free money from ECB will be split between banks and the soverigns. There was a drop in soverign bond yields last week, which partially supports my theory. So, we are seeing yet another move (in addition to the coordinated central banks intervention on Nov.30th), to provide liquidity to european banks. This move really adds support to the markets, atleast until mid January (when other bigger events will unfold). The monetizing effect of this ECB move is seen in the sharp weakening of euro last week.
I have scoured numerous websites over last week (as usual) to prepare my blog. But if you have copious amounts of time, here are couple of links (that provide opposing views) on the above topic i discussed:
http://www.ifre.com/banks-resist-european-pressure-to-buy-government-debt/1620695.article
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-european-debt-crisis-might-be-over-2011-12
My position is that the above business insider article is wrong. I see numerous risk events ahead in Q1 2012 (for brevity reasons, i do not want to bring them up in this article). So, until i see evidence that a strong directional bias has been taken by market for 2012, i will only consider one thing as assured; that is volatility in the markets. The proof is seen in US treasuries' charts. 30 year treasury yield index is near the extreme level seen during 2008 crisis. What does this mean, when intrest rates are so low ? It shows that world financial markets are highly risk averse, going into 2012. There are few places to hide the money in the world (hopefully i will remember to discuss this, at start of 2012) and US treasuries is one of the safe havens. I have been watching US treasuries closely last week, expecting a breakout. Upon the breakdown in yields on friday, i immideately issued a comment/email informing about my entry into a intermediate timeframe position in US treasuries. Take a look at the 30 yr yield index chart presented below. It is quite possible that yields could rise into january to test one of resistance lines i have shown in red and cyan colors; but i would be adding to my positions at those places, as further low risk entries into US bonds. As discussed above, i see enough risk ahead in Q1 2012 in terms of fundamentals, to support this view.
Technical Analysis of spx futures :
While many technical analysts were calling for a bullish santa run during 1st half of december, i have been neutral to bearish (on a weekly analysis basis) for past 2 weeks. The reason is simply that i can see the risks coming ahead, in this news driven daily market. Considering the risk ahead for monday through wednesday (that i listed at top), ES is already moving down from friday's close. As i write this article, ES is at 1203. Last wednesday premarket and during NY session, i commented "1194 as possibility within days" and "70% probability that a bottom for the week will be hit between 1180-1200." While we did see below 1200 last week, it was not during NY session. This forecast holds good for the week ahead, as well. There is strong support for ES in the zone of 1180-90, and if we are going to get the much expected santa rally, it would likely start after a test at this level. This expectation will be invalidated by a daily close above my support level of 1217(mentioned in last blog) , which would signal that it is time to investigate into santa rally, which could go to our neutral area of 1242-44, for the year end. So, 1217 close is the key number i am watching this week. As usual, i will update my views in the daily comments of this blog, as the week progresses, because monday's close will provide better directional bias to trade.
Status of Trades :
All the forecasts i made on Dec 1st produced big returns last week.
I have been updating my thoughts frequently, in the 'comment' section, but this week has enough importance to start a new article. Unlike the usual christmas time quietness, we may see more action this christmas week, because the week's calendar is packed, as follows:
- On monday, there is EU finance ministers meeting ahead of
- Tuesday meeting of EU leaders.
- Wednesday, ECB is performing the first of its 2 LTRO operation, which will move the market.
- Thursday is US Q3 GDP final release.
- Friday US economic data again.
Most news articles i saw described how this is a liquidity operation to supply free money to the struggling european banks. I view these LTRO operation, both as a liquidity as well as a monetizing operation, simultaneously. I have not seen any analyst or blogger address it in the way i view it. Ingenious move, if you really ponder about it. I suspect there would have been some closed door discussions between ECB, European banks and leaders during the past month, on how this free money can be used by the banks. There has been a rumor for past 3 weeks that one of the big banks of europe is near collapse. So, its clear that the banks need the money for their own survival; but also, the governments need the money to fund their bond operations and functioning of the governments. So, it is quite likely that the individual governments will pressure the local banks in their country, to use ECB given money to purchase their soverign bonds. And hence, my theory is that, this free money from ECB will be split between banks and the soverigns. There was a drop in soverign bond yields last week, which partially supports my theory. So, we are seeing yet another move (in addition to the coordinated central banks intervention on Nov.30th), to provide liquidity to european banks. This move really adds support to the markets, atleast until mid January (when other bigger events will unfold). The monetizing effect of this ECB move is seen in the sharp weakening of euro last week.
I have scoured numerous websites over last week (as usual) to prepare my blog. But if you have copious amounts of time, here are couple of links (that provide opposing views) on the above topic i discussed:
http://www.ifre.com/banks-resist-european-pressure-to-buy-government-debt/1620695.article
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-european-debt-crisis-might-be-over-2011-12
My position is that the above business insider article is wrong. I see numerous risk events ahead in Q1 2012 (for brevity reasons, i do not want to bring them up in this article). So, until i see evidence that a strong directional bias has been taken by market for 2012, i will only consider one thing as assured; that is volatility in the markets. The proof is seen in US treasuries' charts. 30 year treasury yield index is near the extreme level seen during 2008 crisis. What does this mean, when intrest rates are so low ? It shows that world financial markets are highly risk averse, going into 2012. There are few places to hide the money in the world (hopefully i will remember to discuss this, at start of 2012) and US treasuries is one of the safe havens. I have been watching US treasuries closely last week, expecting a breakout. Upon the breakdown in yields on friday, i immideately issued a comment/email informing about my entry into a intermediate timeframe position in US treasuries. Take a look at the 30 yr yield index chart presented below. It is quite possible that yields could rise into january to test one of resistance lines i have shown in red and cyan colors; but i would be adding to my positions at those places, as further low risk entries into US bonds. As discussed above, i see enough risk ahead in Q1 2012 in terms of fundamentals, to support this view.
Technical Analysis of spx futures :
While many technical analysts were calling for a bullish santa run during 1st half of december, i have been neutral to bearish (on a weekly analysis basis) for past 2 weeks. The reason is simply that i can see the risks coming ahead, in this news driven daily market. Considering the risk ahead for monday through wednesday (that i listed at top), ES is already moving down from friday's close. As i write this article, ES is at 1203. Last wednesday premarket and during NY session, i commented "1194 as possibility within days" and "70% probability that a bottom for the week will be hit between 1180-1200." While we did see below 1200 last week, it was not during NY session. This forecast holds good for the week ahead, as well. There is strong support for ES in the zone of 1180-90, and if we are going to get the much expected santa rally, it would likely start after a test at this level. This expectation will be invalidated by a daily close above my support level of 1217(mentioned in last blog) , which would signal that it is time to investigate into santa rally, which could go to our neutral area of 1242-44, for the year end. So, 1217 close is the key number i am watching this week. As usual, i will update my views in the daily comments of this blog, as the week progresses, because monday's close will provide better directional bias to trade.
Status of Trades :
All the forecasts i made on Dec 1st produced big returns last week.
- Gold and Oil : Recommended short from 1755 and 100+ respectively. Currently gold is trading around my recommended short cover number of 1595. Oil has reached the entry point i was looking for below 94, but i want to see crude behaviour at support of 90, before deciding on long entries again. The entire moves are 9% in gold and 6% in oil, but some of the profits were locked in a bit early, thus unable to realize the full potentials. Currently no position in these two, but looking to initiate again near year end.
- ES futures : I read through all the comments i posted in last blog. 90% of the entries have produced a positive return, if one took action immediately upon seeing the comment, and closed out the trade at the next level of support/resistance numbers i had given in prior blog, during the next open/close time. The negative bias on the market, posted on dec 9th, immediately after seeing the EU leader summit news, proved that analysis of ECB/EU news was correct.
- Bonds: On dec. 7th, in last blog, i mentioned that bonds will provide better volatility and trades than ES. 30yr yields made a 8% move since that comment, but unfortunately, i did not take a position in bonds earlier, since i wanted to wait for a more solid confirmation of directionaly bias ( like the one that happened last friday ).
- So we have well over 25% return on my December forecasts, across these asset classes, but some of the gains were locked in prematurely.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
EU summit - Dec. 2011
Market commentary
Markets are waiting for news of next 2 days from europe. Within hours, ECB is expected to announce a rate cut of 0.25% and anything more than this would be a boost. What the market is really looking for is further measures that ECB could provide as a short term solution to the crisis. ECB providing short term solutions to the crisis, and EU summit providing a long term framework to address the EU crisis, is the two prong approach that is unfolding. Due to positive comments from various top officials during this week, market is exhibiting bullish behaviour so far. The short side of the weekend plan has been only partially useful to identify the resistance levels, but ES did not breach the neutral level around 1244. I am viewing the bond move this week as a possible hedge, before the crucial announcements. If one can correctly identify the market reaction to news, bonds might provide better volatility trades than stocks.
Technical analysis of spx futures
On December 1st, the analysis pointed to 1245 area being the neutral point considering the year end targets. The strong first level of support at 1242-44 is confirming our analysis. I am keeping the support levels for swing trading around the same levels with a 0.5pt change as indicated below. Above the neutral area, i am identifying resistance levels with small changes from Dec 1st. Day traders might find intermediate levels between what is mentioned. In addition, day traders must find more precise numbers (in nearby area) for futures trading. But, these levels serve for an initial guidance. These levels are chosen incorporating risk management strategy (for swings) in mind.
Supports: 1217, 1224, 1230, 1236, 1242-44.
Resistance: 1250, 1258.5, 1270.5, 1279.5 (for this week).
ES is range bound, between 1244 and 1264. A clear break in either direction will give clues to trade the coming days. Year end analysis indicates that the breakout has high probability to be on the upside, within days. But a break below 1230 would signal the need for reevaluation of market condition/sentiment/news.
Status of Trades
Gold forecast from 1750+ to 1700 was good upto 1705, and the trade exited due to trailing stop. We may get another oppurturnity next week, to enter gold trade, in either direction. This trade captured over 45 points in gold.
I got stopped out on monday and tuesday from short trades, initiated last week at 1255(average). These were perfectly good trades (had i let them run without stops into closeing hour). Due to this volatility, i have switched my swing trades into intermediate time frame, with january options as instruments. This gives me some flexibility and time to adjust my trades in either direction. Day trading between the support/resistance levels has provided some cushion against the losses in swings.
Markets are waiting for news of next 2 days from europe. Within hours, ECB is expected to announce a rate cut of 0.25% and anything more than this would be a boost. What the market is really looking for is further measures that ECB could provide as a short term solution to the crisis. ECB providing short term solutions to the crisis, and EU summit providing a long term framework to address the EU crisis, is the two prong approach that is unfolding. Due to positive comments from various top officials during this week, market is exhibiting bullish behaviour so far. The short side of the weekend plan has been only partially useful to identify the resistance levels, but ES did not breach the neutral level around 1244. I am viewing the bond move this week as a possible hedge, before the crucial announcements. If one can correctly identify the market reaction to news, bonds might provide better volatility trades than stocks.
Technical analysis of spx futures
On December 1st, the analysis pointed to 1245 area being the neutral point considering the year end targets. The strong first level of support at 1242-44 is confirming our analysis. I am keeping the support levels for swing trading around the same levels with a 0.5pt change as indicated below. Above the neutral area, i am identifying resistance levels with small changes from Dec 1st. Day traders might find intermediate levels between what is mentioned. In addition, day traders must find more precise numbers (in nearby area) for futures trading. But, these levels serve for an initial guidance. These levels are chosen incorporating risk management strategy (for swings) in mind.
Supports: 1217, 1224, 1230, 1236, 1242-44.
Resistance: 1250, 1258.5, 1270.5, 1279.5 (for this week).
ES is range bound, between 1244 and 1264. A clear break in either direction will give clues to trade the coming days. Year end analysis indicates that the breakout has high probability to be on the upside, within days. But a break below 1230 would signal the need for reevaluation of market condition/sentiment/news.
Status of Trades
Gold forecast from 1750+ to 1700 was good upto 1705, and the trade exited due to trailing stop. We may get another oppurturnity next week, to enter gold trade, in either direction. This trade captured over 45 points in gold.
I got stopped out on monday and tuesday from short trades, initiated last week at 1255(average). These were perfectly good trades (had i let them run without stops into closeing hour). Due to this volatility, i have switched my swing trades into intermediate time frame, with january options as instruments. This gives me some flexibility and time to adjust my trades in either direction. Day trading between the support/resistance levels has provided some cushion against the losses in swings.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Trading plan for Dec. 2nd week
Market Commentary for the week ahead:
Last week's trading started with a wrong bias on ES, which was published on thanksgiving day. But, after taking the stop losses immediately, the rest of the week has been highly successful, as ES moved between my support and resistance numbers. So, overall i am considering last week to be successful blog articles. (Note that i publish intraday or daily updates as comments. I put in these comments in the last 2 blog articles every week). Since members do not get 'auto-update email' when a comment is published, i have decided to send out a group email, whenever i update with a comment.
As of this sunday afternoon, there is no major news releases that could move markets in a major way.
So, it is quite likely that the major move of this week will come in the second half of this week, rather than monday/tuesday. I have not checked the major news expected out of asia for this week, since i am not associating much weightage to asia right now.
So, for this week, i am presenting my trading plan for the week ahead. My support and resistance levels (published on Dec.1st) have not changed. As i noted in that article, i am more precise with the support levels but the resistance levels may have a few points of error (as witnessed in last friday's NY session). But, my trading sticks to my numbers (for reasons of risk management properly).
Technical Analysis:
I beleive that market is bullish for december to test highs. My year end estimate of 1290 on ES will be seen sometime during december (even if we do not finish year end there). The central bank intervention last week puts a floor below ES for this week near my support level of 1216.5. Note that this is exactly the target for my longs, as declared in a comment on monday, november 28th at 11.30am, (when ES was 1192 and below). If you continue reading those comments, you will see that i was considering shorts if ES pushes above 1260. This happened on friday, and following the resistance levels posted, i am holding short 1260 and 1249, going into second week of december. So, even though i am bullish for december, i am trying to play a potential down move, before any push higher is possible.
Capturing Short side of the market:
During monday NY opening, if market takes a bullish direction and ES reaches 1260, my swing shorts from last week will take a 5.5 point stop loss. This is acceptable, since my risk/reward criteria is justified with a potential move to my second support near 1230.5. I am planning on covering these shorts near 1230.5 support area, depending on market action on monday/tuesday.
Capturing Long side move:
I plan to wait and see market action around 1230-1226 and assess news breakouts on monday, to get ready for a potential move up. Buys will be initated near my support levels near 1217 and 1225, which will be sold at 1269.5, as my high probability (80%) trade of this week. IFF i am able to get entry near 1217, i would consider holding half of this long position for higher level resistances for year end target of 1290. I will make a decision on this, based on developments during the week. I will take the long positions using January options, to capture the potential up move as much as possible.
Stop loss for these longs = 1208 area in december.
Futures market is not yet open this sunday evening, and ES is at 1244, friday's close.
Last week's trading started with a wrong bias on ES, which was published on thanksgiving day. But, after taking the stop losses immediately, the rest of the week has been highly successful, as ES moved between my support and resistance numbers. So, overall i am considering last week to be successful blog articles. (Note that i publish intraday or daily updates as comments. I put in these comments in the last 2 blog articles every week). Since members do not get 'auto-update email' when a comment is published, i have decided to send out a group email, whenever i update with a comment.
As of this sunday afternoon, there is no major news releases that could move markets in a major way.
- On monday there is a lunch meeting between german and french leaders, in preparation for Dec. 9th meeting of EU political leaders.
- ECB meeting could potentially release some form of action, if there is an accord from the monday meeting of french and german leaders.
- In the US, there is no major economic data, until thursday/friday. On friday US trade data, which is the biggest piece of economic data for this week, in USA.
So, it is quite likely that the major move of this week will come in the second half of this week, rather than monday/tuesday. I have not checked the major news expected out of asia for this week, since i am not associating much weightage to asia right now.
So, for this week, i am presenting my trading plan for the week ahead. My support and resistance levels (published on Dec.1st) have not changed. As i noted in that article, i am more precise with the support levels but the resistance levels may have a few points of error (as witnessed in last friday's NY session). But, my trading sticks to my numbers (for reasons of risk management properly).
Technical Analysis:
I beleive that market is bullish for december to test highs. My year end estimate of 1290 on ES will be seen sometime during december (even if we do not finish year end there). The central bank intervention last week puts a floor below ES for this week near my support level of 1216.5. Note that this is exactly the target for my longs, as declared in a comment on monday, november 28th at 11.30am, (when ES was 1192 and below). If you continue reading those comments, you will see that i was considering shorts if ES pushes above 1260. This happened on friday, and following the resistance levels posted, i am holding short 1260 and 1249, going into second week of december. So, even though i am bullish for december, i am trying to play a potential down move, before any push higher is possible.
Capturing Short side of the market:
During monday NY opening, if market takes a bullish direction and ES reaches 1260, my swing shorts from last week will take a 5.5 point stop loss. This is acceptable, since my risk/reward criteria is justified with a potential move to my second support near 1230.5. I am planning on covering these shorts near 1230.5 support area, depending on market action on monday/tuesday.
Capturing Long side move:
I plan to wait and see market action around 1230-1226 and assess news breakouts on monday, to get ready for a potential move up. Buys will be initated near my support levels near 1217 and 1225, which will be sold at 1269.5, as my high probability (80%) trade of this week. IFF i am able to get entry near 1217, i would consider holding half of this long position for higher level resistances for year end target of 1290. I will make a decision on this, based on developments during the week. I will take the long positions using January options, to capture the potential up move as much as possible.
Stop loss for these longs = 1208 area in december.
Futures market is not yet open this sunday evening, and ES is at 1244, friday's close.
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