Thursday, December 1, 2011

Happy holiday season starts - Dec 1st trading.

Within a few hours after i posted the previous blog on euro, pointing out that euro is reaching a critical shaded support zone, where a crash is imminent, we got action. It is as if  the central bankers knew that they were on the verge of a serious crash, worse than august event.  So, now we have the "best 3 consecutive days since 2009".  The best  buy points were already bought before - and i suspect that some people already knew that this policy action was coming (just like how it was recently revealed that some hedge funds already knew the action that was coming in 2008).  So, while wednesday was all around good news in economy as well as in european crisis, it is time to buy only pullbacks.  While i see further gains ahead within few more days, i will be terminating my longs in these days ahead, and start building  short swings (because  this is too much of a rally, for a band-aid solution to europe, which fixes it for few weeks).

My thorough analysis today didnt reveal anything that was not obvious.  I am interested in buying the dips for next couple of days, and my support levels are evenly spaced out.  So, depending on your risk management criteria, one can pick one of these numbers as buy point.  My target numbers are not as precise as supports, because im interested in exiting longs sooner, rather than later, depending on market momentum. Notice that the supports can be used as stop loss numbers too, depending on risk management criteria one has.

Supports:  1216.5, 1224.5, 1230.5, 1236.5
Resistance:  1249.5 (high as of premarket europe), 1259 and 1269.5 area.

I am planning to exit my longs around 1259 and watch market action before making further decisions.  I keep open the possibility of starting a short swing entry, above 1260.  I am planning to buy the supports until then, with a stop loss at 1215.5.  Europe just opened, and ES is now at 1241.

3 comments:

TraderSam said...

No major news so far into europe open, and market possibly likes 1231 level since it has been tested many times in the past. I am expecting atleast that level for thursday in NY, if not more, as the downside test.

TraderSam said...

The bond auctions in europe today went well, and there is rumors of higher ISM data in US. So, i scratch that expectation of 1231 for thursday, and trade the day between the levels i gave out.

TomD said...

nice job