I wish all my readers a successful trading year ahead, in 2012.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Goodbye 2011
We are starting 2012 on a postive note, and i have spent a good chunk of my holidays into further research on the potential of 2012. I covered numerous topics including fundamental valuation of s&p 500, institutional expectations, potential risk factors including bank and soverign debt levels, etc. I hope to put all this together as an article for next weekend. Meanwhile, here is a chart covering my forecasts during 2011. We can be happy, when we consider that big hedge fund managers like John Paulson lost over 50% of their portfolio. spx itself has gone nowhere during 2011, but the high volatility is a godsend for traders, and offered tremendous returns for the smart trader.
I wish all my readers a successful trading year ahead, in 2012.
I wish all my readers a successful trading year ahead, in 2012.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
8 comments:
I forgot to mention my gold short 1755+ call in december, with a cover short recommended at 1595.
I will update any daily thoughts in the comment section here during this week, with no further blog entry until next weekend.
Most would have expected a positive day for 1st trading day, but this gap up seems a bit overzealous. My guess is that ES will be within the trading range of 1263-1284 today. It seems low risk to sell the highs rather than buy this "week". If day trading, i would expect selling pressure above 1278.
My guess of 1263 yesterday is coming up today, i think, as my estimate for the lows today are below 1259. We have resistance at 1274, and i dont see any reason to continue this strong bullish phase of december, during pre-earnings week.
Fundamentals supporting a downside continuation: Warnings from eurozone continue to appear, with greece threatening to leave eurozone in march, if they dont get more money. Eurozone recession in 2012 has been reiterated by Juncker. The silver lining is the earnings and good economic data out of US, amidst all the worries. If this silver lining disappears anytime, another strong selloff could occur anyday, because the next QE from ECB is not until February. And we are near the higher end of valuations than the lower end, considering earnings so far.
Thursday brings a mixed picture to start the NY session, as the negative news from Europe is offset by extremely strong employment data in US. My trading bias from beginning of the week has not changed, and i continue to hold the "sell the tops" bias, and yesterday's resistance level still holds as first level to watch at 1274. If 1275 is exceeded, i will consider a bullish bias for the day. Globex lows are my target levels, despite the good economic data.
Yet another day, when bad economic data out of europe is balanced by good employment data in US. I think market could make a swing top today or early next week. Today i am trading between the range of 1269-1285. I think most likely we will see the highs set by european closing time. Wish you a nice weekend ahead.
Market decided to test the lower extreme rather than the higher extreme, prior to european closing, i am guessing. With 1268.5 set as support, we are likely to push higher into closing, so im trailing a stop that is loose to protect the gains and run it all the way into closing hour. Since today is friday, we may not see the highs i was originally expecting, and so, the trailing stop would be a better idea.
Market is showing weakness, as per my bias for the week, and the premarket comment today. 1285 is unlikely for close today, so i will be getting out of my longs around 1277 area and call it a week. If it runs up to 128 area, i would consider a swing short into next week.
Post a Comment